The dynamism of the Chinese economy is accompanied by overheating
The Chinese economy posted a strong all-round in the first quarter of 2004 and the growth rate would amount to about 9%, according to Chinese economists forecast.
investment and exports continue to gain momentum. But the boom is accompanied by an overheated fixed assets investment, a surge in commodity prices and an inadequate supply of coal, electricity and oil by lack of transportation.
Investment demand continued to boost growth. Investment in fixed assets rose 53% on the first two months of the year, the ceiling figure recorded since 1994. 40 000 projects have been launched, 10 000 more than the same period last year.
Retail sales rose 10%. The growing range of consumer goods was significant. The automobile, housing and tourism products and information have become new attractions on the market.
exports that have stayed the course of growth, rose 28.7% from January to February a year ago.
Industrial production continued strong growth and profits of industrial enterprises have ceased to grow. Their added value totaled 1.1318 trillion yuan (141.4 billion), up 17.7% over the same period last year. These are the main factors behind the strong growth of Chinese economy.
According to a poll conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicators like consumer confidence and business have continued to rise in the first quarter. The index of business confidence was 138.8, up 6.3 points year on year, a level never experienced in recent years.
investments have accelerated sharply and demand far exceeded supply in areas including metallurgy, electrolytic aluminum, copper and oil. Overheated investment has caused the energy shortage due to lack of transportation and the soaring prices of inputs on the market.
China is very resource-intensive mining. In February, Chinese imports of oil, copper and aluminum increased by 60% yoy. Thus, the Chinese economy will be more susceptible to fluctuations in the international market.
Moreover, grain production has suffered a setback for many consecutive years. Grain prices rose 28, 4% in March, resulting in higher prices for industrial products, according to data provided by the People’s Bank of China.
The gap between the incomes of urban and rural areas and widening the gap between the urban middle class and poor is widening. This situation is causing depression in consumption. What makes the offer of 77% of the 600 major everyday products has exceeded demand.
According to statistics, household consumption contributed 57% of GDP in 2003, less than 20 point to the global average of the last ten years.
Chinese economists call to follow closely the situation of the Chinese economy which is now at a crucial time and do everything possible to avoid the ups and downs.
在我国经济活力，是伴随着经济过热
我国经济公布的2004年第一季度强劲的全面增长幅度将达到9％左右，据预测，中国经济学家。
投资和出口继续增加势头。但是经济增长是伴随着固定资产投资过热，在商品价格的上涨和对煤，电，油，运输能力不足，缺乏供应。
投资需求继续刺激经济增长。固定资产投资增长的前两个月53％，是自1994年以来最高的数字记录。 40 000项目已经启动，10万个，比去年同期多。
零售销售上升了10％。消费品范围日益显着。汽车，住房，旅游产品和信息，已成为市场上的新景点。
Les exportations qui ont maintenu le cap de croissance, ont augmenté de 28,7% de janvier à février en glissement annuel.
工业生产持续强劲增长和工业企业利润停止增长。其增加值总额为11318.0亿元（141.4亿美元），同比增长17.7％，比去年同期。这是背后的中国经济强劲增长的主要因素。
根据国家统计局，如消费者信心指数和企业进行的调查显示继续上升，第一季度。商业信心指数为138.8，上升6.3点，比去年同期，这一水平在近几年从未经历。
投资急剧加速和需求远远超过了包括冶金，电解铝，铜和石油等领域的供应。投资过热，造成能源短缺，由于缺乏运输和投入的价格上涨在市场上。
中国是非常耗费资源开采。今年2月，石油，铜，铝中国的进口增加了60％，按年。因此，中国经济将会更容易波动的国际市场。
此外，粮食生产受到连续多年挫折。粮食价格上涨28％，3月4日，在工业产品价格上涨造成的，根据人民银行对中国提供的数据。
之间的城乡收入和贫富的城市中产阶级和贫富差距差距正在扩大。这种情况导致消费抑郁症。是什么使77 600％的产品主要提供每天超过需求。
据统计，家庭消费导致2003年的57％的GDP，不到20点的近10年来全球平均水平。
中国经济学家呼吁密切关注我国经济目前正处于关键时刻，尽一切可能避免大起大落的情况。
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